“In every community, there is a class of people profoundly dangerous to the rest. I don’t mean the criminals. For them we have punitive sanctions. I mean the leaders. Invariably, the most dangerous people seek power” – Saul Bellow, 1915-2005.

The chaos experienced in Lagos State government goes beyond the ordinary political disturbance nations occasionally experience. It is tending towards the sort of anarchy which threatens democratic governments. At the risk of being called parochial, it needs to be stated that Lagos is unlike any other state in the federation. It is the second most important unit in Nigeria – after the Federal Government.

The state accounts for nearly half of the nation’s commercial activities; it is home to the headquarters of most banks and other financial institutions and the largest single refinery globally. The head offices of five of the nation’s leading newspapers are here. No national strike can be successful without Lagos participating. Right now, Lagos is undergoing what can only be described as a political spasm which could become violent – if not properly handled by the All Progressives Congress, APC.

It is difficult to pin-point the exact cause of the current crisis which has turned the state House of Assembly, SHA, into a battle ground in which the police and the Department of State Security, DSS, now determine who has access to the hallowed chambers of the legislative house. Hitherto, well respected elders of the party in the state, the Governor’s Advisory Council, GAC, which until now spoke with one voice, are also divided on the main issue of whether Mr Obasa has been constitutionally removed as Speaker and Mrs Meranda has emerged as his replacement.

The roles of the police and DSS are also confusing. It is difficult to understand on whose instructions they operate and who they regard as the Speaker to protect against the other. The last drama before the writing of this column occurred on Thursday, February 27, 2025, when Obasa was escorted into the SHA with only four members of the Assembly to hold a session while 36 members were locked out. The self-proclaimed Centre of Excellence has now become the Centre of Confusion politically.

Even the reported intervention of former Governor Bisi Akande of Osun and his Ogun counterpart, Segun Osoba, proved abortive. The party’s elders would have been better off staying at home. Battle lines have been drawn and neither side is prepared to concede an inch. That is understandable. Irrespective of who eventually emerges as the ultimate Speaker, the war between the two camps has just started. That is the most frightening aspect of this conflict.

Just as concerning is the realisation that the state and National Leader of the APC, President Tinubu, is being cited by both sides as their supporter, his attempt to declare “no winner no loser” through Akande and Osoba had met a brick wall on both sides. Neither Obasa nor Meranda wants to step down to allow a third candidate to emerge as Speaker. The case is in court and might drag on for a long time while the wounds of hostility fester.

Elsewhere, the Governor of the state is the recognised leader of the party in the state. That unfortunately has not been the case with Lagos State. Tinubu has kept control of the party machinery – all the way down to the ward level. As inconvenient as that might be for Lagos State Governor, it ensured unified command – with little room for disagreement or discord. But, that level of involvement was only possible when he was not President. Given the challenges of the presidency, with an angry North trying to unseat him in 2027, it has become absolutely impossible to maintain the grip on Lagos.

Political power abhors a vacuum; and with the Governor not fully in control, the current power tussle was an accident waiting to happen. The most important question now is: how does the party resolve the conflict without creating lasting enmity within the ranks as the nation moves towards the mid-term of the Tinubu administration and politics moves to the centre stage once again? It is not easy for a non-politician to advise professionals in the business about how to go about solving their self-created problems. One thing however appears obvious to an onlooker; and that might be the starting point.

“Who will guard the guards themselves?” asked Juvenal, born 55 AD, a Roman satirist. Nigerians in general and Lagosians in particular should now be asking: “Who will rule the rulers themselves?” As at the time of writing this article, Lagos State House of Assembly is ‘controlled’ by security forces – not those elected to rule. The police and DSS are there because the rulers have demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that they are incapable of ruling. Has ruler-ship now been transferred to security forces in Lagos? The crisis is certainly an embarrassment to President Tinubu.

This impasse is taking place in his state and those demonstrating their unfitness for ruling are people he personally approved to be elected to office. Right now, like a magician who has suddenly run out of tricks, he is obviously bewildered – wondering why the old magic wand no longer works. I think there might be a reason. Most of the old hands he had used to control the state have stayed on for too long. The culture of family dynasties, children of old politicians and their in-laws being slated for all the available political offices – Senate, House of Representatives, state House of Assembly, cabinet positions, etc – is now breeding pervasive resentment.





https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/03/lagos-and-the-slide-to-anarchy-by-dele-sobowale/